Insight: Without unity, no centrality

Rizal Sukma, Jakarta
Insight
Tue, July 17 2012, 7:00 AM

A- A A+

Paper Edition
Page: 2 - Klipping The Jakarta Post


After its success under the chairmanship of Indonesia in 2011, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) now faces a serious setback after the 45th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, ended in a diplomatic disaster, carrying serious strategic consequences for both the grouping and the region.



For the first time since its establishment in August 1967, ASEAN failed to reach a consensus on the issuance of a joint communiqué that has always served as an important hallmark of ASEAN foreign ministers’ gatherings.



The circumstances surrounding the failure are well known. Cambodia, as the 2012 chair of ASEAN, managed to thwart the wishes of the other nine ASEAN members to include a reference to the South China Sea dispute into the final communiqué. Some ASEAN countries and “anonymous” diplomatic sources, as reported by the media, have blamed Cambodia for acting on behalf of China. There are also those who blame China for using Cambodia as its proxy to block consensus and create disunity among ASEAN members.



But, ASEAN and its principle of consensus are also to blame. While in many past cases this principle has served ASEAN well, there have also been times when ASEAN’s credibility was undermined by the principle. Whatever differences it encountered, ASEAN has always managed to find common ground, even on the most difficult issues, such as in the case of Indonesia’s opposition to the weak terms of reference (ToR) for the ASEAN Inter-Governmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) back in 2009. Therefore, the failure at the 45th AMM is unprecedented and an embarrassment for ASEAN.



Indeed, ASEAN should have just gone ahead with issuing the communiqué even without the consent of the ASEAN chair. Unfortunately, however, there is no mechanism within ASEAN to make such an action possible. Moreover, the protocol and tradition within ASEAN prevented that course of action as the chair, which is also the host, usually exercises the role and is given the authority “to represent” and “act on behalf of” the association. In that position, any ASEAN chair, as demonstrated by Cambodia, can exercise a veto power of sorts to the detriment of the larger interests of the grouping.



Therefore, it is time for ASEAN to once again reconsider its rules and procedures in decision making. If ASEAN wants to be a force for the 21st century, it should have left the principle of absolute consensus behind in the 20th century. The principle of ASEAN-X should be revived. Furthermore, ASEAN should not allow this kind of problem to occur again in the future. ASEAN should never allow itself to be held hostage and intimidated by anyone, be it its own chair, any other member state or any extra-regional power in particular.



The failed 45th AMM, while it once again reveals the inner weakness of ASEAN’s decision-making mechanism, also points to two strategic challenges facing ASEAN.



First, the prospect for an amicable negotiation and early conclusion of the Code of Conduct (CoC) on the South China Sea between ASEAN and China is now uncertain. Without ASEAN speaking with one voice on the issue, it will be difficult to reach an agreement with China. China itself, amid differences between Cambodia and other ASEAN countries on the issue, has returned to its previous habit of saying that talks on the CoC can only proceed “when the time is ripe”.



Second, the differences in strategic orientation and interests among ASEAN member states have begun to point to the grouping’s fear: the polarization of ASEAN. It is very hard to believe that such polarization has nothing to do with the differences in ASEAN member states’ relationships with extra-regional powers.



The greatest challenge for ASEAN in this regard is to prevent this emerging polarization from marginalizing ASEAN itself within the emerging major power rivalries in the region.



Failing to address these challenges would mean the end of ASEAN’s centrality and role as the manager of regional order. Worse, it could also mean the beginning of a post-ASEAN regional order where Southeast Asia once again becomes an appendix to great power politics. Indonesia, as the most committed ASEAN member, should step forward and remind ASEAN that without unity, there is no centrality.



If other ASEAN countries do not share Indonesia’s passion for and commitment to ASEAN, then it is indeed time for us to start another round of debate on the merits of a post-ASEAN foreign policy. We have many other important foreign policy agendas to attend to other than just whining and agonizing over ASEAN’s failures.



The writer is executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta

Add Comment Share on vkShare on facebookShare on mymailruMore Sharing Services

SBY wants more talks after ASEAN failure

Bagus BT Saragih, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Headlines
Tue, July 17 2012, 6:17 AM

A- A A+

Paper Edition
Page: 1 - Klipping The Jakarta Post





(JP/Ricky Yudhistira)

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono expressed his disappointment over Indonesia’s failure to help settle disputes in the South China Sea during the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Ministerial Meeting (AMM).



Yudhoyono held an impromptu press conference at the Presidential Office on Monday, only to express his concerns over the failure of ASEAN members to come up with a communiqué during the AMM in Phnom Penh, Cambodia — the first in the organization’s 45-year history.



“This has never happened since the ASEAN was established. I am disappointed and really concerned, this could lead to misperceptions or false representation of ASEAN. The media has said ASEAN has broken apart and there was no longer unity in the region,” he said.



“I disagree. ASEAN has not broken up and it remains in unity in spite of the ongoing problems that need to be resolved.”



The Presidential Office convened the press conference after Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa briefed Yudhoyono on the fall out from the failed ASEAN meeting.



Indonesia is one of ASEAN’s founding members and handed over the 2012 chairmanship to Cambodia. Yudhoyono had repeatedly expressed his confidence about Indonesia’s growing international influence, including helping to resolve conflicts in the region.



Indonesia has been considered as having significant clout in the region, particularly during its last chairmanship period in 2011.



The country has been seen as one of key players in the democratization process in Myanmar as well as in the settlement of the conflicts on the Cambodia-Thailand border.



When it comes to South China Sea disputes, however, Indonesia, which appears to be playing a mediator role, has faced insurmountable obstacles in trying to reconcile differences among many ASEAN member states.



The 2012 AMM, which wrapped up on July 13, was the first occasion when ASEAN failed to produce a joint communiqué.



“Last year, we managed to help settle Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia issues and all worked well. This time, the portfolio to handle [the South China Sea] issue has not been managed as expected,” Marty said.



“We had tried to bridge views of different interests. Since the beginning, we realize this would not be without risk. The possibility of not resulting in an immediate outcome was always on the table. Yet staying idle and doing nothing would create much greater risk,” he said.



Although Indonesia is no longer the ASEAN chair, Yudhoyono has made an initiative to play a greater role in the region.



“The absence of mutual views on the South China Sea poses potential disturbances for the region. We can’t be left like this for too long,” he said.



Marty also said that Yudhoyono has instructed him to travel to all ASEAN countries and try to build consensus.



“I was told by the President to continue seeking consensus by meeting and communicating with my ASEAN counterparts one by one in their respective home countries. Tomorrow I will fly to Manila to meet the Philippine foreign minister, then to Hanoi [Vietnam], Phnom Penh [Cambodia], Kuala Lumpur [Malaysia] and Singapore,” he added.



Marty said that conditions could still improve.



“I hope we still can reach a form of mutual understanding on the South China Sea, at least before the upcoming ASEAN Summit in November,” he said.



ASEAN countries, which had been involved in the South China Sea row, including the Philippines, Vietnam and ASEAN chair Cambodia.



The Philippines and Vietnam insisted that their recent clashes with China should be mentioned and included in the final communiqué.



Last April, Chinese and Philippine government ships were in a confrontational mode over the Scarborough Shoal. Chinese maps refer to this string of sandbanks as Huayang.



Cambodia, meanwhile, was considered to be backing China’s interests.



Marty refused to comment when queried about the row and said that the dispute was over details in the communiqué.



“There were indeed some countries which insisted to include details of the disputed bloc in the communiqué while other countries refused to do so,” he said.

ASEAN’s communiqué failure disappoints SBY

ASEAN’s communiqué failure disappoints SBY


Bagus BT Saragih, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
World
Mon, July 16 2012, 5:51 PM  - Klipping The Jakarta Post

A- A A+



Susilo Bambang Yuhoyono: (JP/Ricky Yudhistira)

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono expressed his disappointment over the failed Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) communiqué during the newly arranged ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.



“This had never happened since the ASEAN was established. I am disappointed and really concerned,” Yudhoyono told the media on Monday to comment on the ASEAN foreign ministers’ failure to reach a consensus regarding the prolonged South China Sea dispute.



The impromptu press conference was made after Yudhoyono met with Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa at the Presidential Office in the morning to talk about the fallout of the one-week ASEAN Ministerial Meeting.



The summit ended on July 13, for the first time in ASEAN’s 45-year history, with no joint communiqué.



“This could lead to misperceptions or false depictions about ASEAN. The media has said ASEAN was broken and there was no longer unity in the region,” Yudhoyono said.



“I disagree. ASEAN is not shattered and there is no disunity despite existing issues that must be resolved,” he added.



Indonesia is one of ASEAN’s founding members,



Marty said he was called by Yudhoyono and asked to meet the President at the latter’s office immediately after he returned home from Cambodia.



“The President has instructed me to tour some ASEAN cities to meet my counterparts with a hope that we can still reach consensus before the upcoming ASEAN Summit in November at the latest,” Marty said.



Among ASEAN cities, Marty has planned to visit in the near future Manila, the Philippines; Hanoi, Vietnam; Phnom Penh, Cambodia; and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

ASEAN reaches out to LatAm

Andi Haswidi and Rangga D. Fadillah, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Headlines | Tue, July 10 2012, 9:21 AM - Klipping the Jakarta Post

A- A A+

Paper Edition | Page: 1

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono with Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan (second right), Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Radjasa (unseen, right) and ASEAN Foundation executive director Makarim Wibisono after his speech opening the ASEAN-Latin Business Forum in Jakarta on Monday. The two-day forum is aimed at improving business cooperation among countries in Southeast Asia and South America. (JP/Jerry Adiguna)

The biggest gathering of ASEAN, Latin American and Caribbean decision makers kicked off in Jakarta on Monday, with participants pondering the big task of improving connectivity and business confidence between emerging regions.

Despite the sheer geographical distance and limited past interaction between the regions, the participants agreed that the benefits of deepening trade and investment relations would be undeniable at a time when the global economy is shrouded in prolonged crisis in the US and the European Union.

“We cannot ignore the fact that despite encouraging developments in Greece and Spain, the crisis in the eurozone is far from over. The OECD [Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development] has predicted that the eurozone will contract by 2 percent in 2012,” said President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in his keynote speech on the first day of the third ASEAN-Latin Business Forum.

Yudhoyono, who recently returned from trips to Mexico, Brazil and Ecuador, credited participants who had traveled on long flights to Jakarta, saying that their “fatigue and jet lag” were a testament to the spirit of cooperation and mutuality.

The president said that economic dynamism and robust growth in Latin America (LatAm) and Caribbean countries as well as Southeast Asia represented enough incentive to improve trade and investment relations.

According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC), Latin America’s collective GDP has reached US$6.87 trillion and is expected to grow by 4.1 percent this year. The combined value of ASEAN currently stands at about $3.36 trillion and is projected to grow at 7.2 percent.

“These two dynamic regions have so much potential for collaboration that we have yet to tap in earnest,” Yudhoyono said, while adding that despite the size of economies and populations, trade between the two regions only made up 2.3 percent of the total value of trade with all global partners.

ASEAN is home to 608 million people, almost equal to the combined population of Latin America and the Caribbean, which is about 578 million.

The President said that improving connectivity was crucial to realizing the market potential of the regions. He also added that other issues pertinent to trade barriers must also be addressed.

HSBC chief economist for India and ASEAN Leif Lybecker Eskesen agreed that connectivity had to be improved and the governments in both regions must also be able to create comfortable climates to boost trade and investment.

“There are some challenges that must be solved like trade barriers, import tariffs and other restrictions, which don’t allow trade and investment to flow freely,” he said.

Citing a HSBC forecast, Eskesen said that by 2050, Brazil and Mexico would be in the top 10 largest economies in the world, while Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand would be in the top 25, followed by Peru and Venezuela in the top 35.

Indonesian Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan said ASEAN, Latin America and Caribbean economies should take plenty of “small big steps” to realize economic potential between the regions. The regions, he said, each had “something sexy” to offer and added that it was left to stakeholders to educate their counterparts.

“We have to do this continuously and diligently. Make no mistake, we are competing with other zones such as the Middle East, India and Pakistan. They are amazing in terms of trade,” he said.

The ASEAN-Latin Business Forum will extend until Tuesday, in which International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Christine Lagarde is scheduled to address trade ministers and other participants on the state of affairs in the global economic crisis.

Nuclear states shun ASEAN treaty

Supalak Ganjanakhundee, Asia News Network (The Nation), Phnom Penh | World | Mon, July 09 2012, 12:59 PM - Klipping the Jakarta Post

A- A A+

Nuclear weapons states will not sign the protocol of the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone treaty (SEANWFZ) at this week’s ASEAN meeting as many of them still have reservations, Foreign Minister Surapong Towichukchaikul said Sunday.

Nuclear powers including the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom were supposed to sign the protocol when their representatives attended the ASEAN ministerial meeting in Cambodia this week. However, many of them voiced reservations to the group at short notice over their rights and sovereignties in zones defined as "nuclear weapons free".

China, an immediate neighbor of ASEAN, voiced a specific concern that the nuclear free zone might affect its sovereignty over territory, exclusive economic zone and continental shelves. Russia had reservations on the right of foreign ships and aircraft to pass into the nuclear free zone, while France and the UK had reservations on the definition of the zone itself.

ASEAN officials tried to make clarifications and adjustments to accommodate all of the nuclear states, but many reservations affected the main body of the treaty, which could not be modified.

To maintain the cooperation of the group and the nuclear weapons holders, ASEAN would issue a joint statement to show its intent to develop the protocol. It would have a separate memorandum of understanding with China to clarify concerns over sovereignty, Surapong said.

Members of ASEAN signed the SEANWFZ in 1995 declaring not to develop, manufacture or otherwise acquire, possess or have control over nuclear weapons; station nuclear weapons; or test or use nuclear weapons anywhere inside or outside the treaty zone. The treaty zone covers the territories, continental shelves, and exclusive economic zones of the state parties. ASEAN has negotiated with nuclear states for a long time to have them sign the protocol of the treaty.

Besides the nuclear issue, the dispute in the South China Sea between China and members of ASEAN was also a hot topic of discussion at the ASEAN meeting, Surapong said.

The subject of discussions was how to properly address China's conflict with the Philippines and Vietnam over Scarborough Shoal and the exclusive economic zones, while maintaining a comfortable level for all concerned parties. ASEAN needed to express its views on the issue to show it was still relevant and independent enough to sit at the centre of the region for all matters. The issue would be discussed in many of the meetings in Phnom Penh this week including the meeting of foreign ministers of the group, the post-ministerial conference and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jeichi and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would attend the postministerial conference as dialogue partners of ASEAN, and attend the ARF.

Documents to be issued after the meetings would express ASEAN's concern over the situation in the South China Sea and urged all concerned parties to exercise utmost restraint. The documents would not mention any specific situation or incident. ASEAN has been struggling for a long time to have a code of conduct with China for the South China Sea. It signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002. The nonbinding document, widely known in the group as the DOC, was not an instrument for a durable settlement of the dispute in the area.

ASEAN has worked to have common elements with China for a future binding code of conduct, Surapong said. Thailand would coordinate with China to have a meeting on the code of conduct in the second week of September in Cambodia, according to Thai Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary Sihasak Phuangketkeow.

The workshop in September would be an informal one to explore common elements that both sides should have in the code of conduct, he said. (nvn)

The economic development strategic interest in Indonesia’s foreign policy

Yayan GH Mulyana, Jakarta | Opinion | Fri, July 06 2012, 9:38 AM - Klipping The Jakarta Post

A- A A+

Paper Edition | Page: 7

On June 13, 2012, in a speech to the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) in Bogor, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono presented a manifesto on sustainable development with equity. The points of this manifesto were reaffirmed in his speeches during and on the sidelines of the recent Rio+20 Summit.

The pronouncement of the manifesto asserts the prominence of economic development (ecodev) as one of the country’s strategic interests. This is only natural for a country like Indonesia, which is now an emerging country with notable sustained growth and a greater contribution to the global pursuit of strong, balanced, inclusive and sustainable growth.

An ecodev strategy is multidimensional in nature. It encompases a wide range of core interests, from sustained growth to poverty eradication, a green economy, sustainable development, food and energy security and financial inclusion. It also permeates the jurisdiction of both domestic and foreign policies.

In fact, ecodev is not a new interest in Indonesia’s foreign policy. During the first Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit in Belgrade in 1961, for example, Indonesia pioneered the discussion of ecodev on the agenda of NAM. To further promote ecodev imperatives in a concerted way, Indonesia cofounded the Group of 77 in 1964. Since its inception, the G77 has served as the spearhead of developing countries in guarding their ecodev interests within the UN system, and also in promoting South-South cooperation for development.

But what makes today’s ecodev strategic to Indonesia is that it is beyond resolutions and declarations of multilateral negotiations. It is a real issue that matters most and is at the very heart of present-day Indonesia. It is the choice of commitment, which is followed through with bold policies, strategies and practical measures. This is particularly true considering what Indonesia has been doing in the areas of, among other things, climate change, food and energy security, financial inclusion and poverty eradication.

The significance of ecodev to Indonesia was rececently highlighted by the decision of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to appoint President Yudhoyono as one of the Co-Chairs of the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on a Post-2015 Development Agenda. This appointment was not random. It was based on careful consideration, which reflects the international community’s appreciation toward Indonesia for its role in the promotion of sustainable development both at home and abroad.

The presidential manifesto has undoubtedly confirmed the strategic meaning of ecodev to Indonesia. It outlines the substance of ecodev that needs to be furthered in specific directives, frameworks, strategies and goals.

The fact that the ecodev strategic interest is situated within the confluence of domestic and foreign policy carries with it a few consequences.

First, it will require better interagency coordination. Only by effective coordination can the best decisions be made on what needs to be done via domestic policies with regard to ecodev, through the foreign policy establishment and through the interface of the two.

Second, the development of ecodev capacity will be needed, especially within the governmental agencies that perform coordinating or monitoring functions. When such capacity is already available, it will be important to ensure that such capacity functions effectively. Technical ministries that tackle specific dimension of the ecodev interest may wish to mainstream the presidential manifesto into their work.

Third, policy synchronization and harmonization. As national policy is foreign policy under the ecodev framework, it is crucial to ensure coherence between the two policies, particularly in terms of substance.

Fourth, prioritizing the avenue. This is about where the battle must be won. Is the battle in the generating of strategic partnerships? Is the battle at the UN, G20 or G77? Is it in Bali, Copenhagen, Durban, Rio or elsewhere? For countries like Indonesia, the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha round on development is a critical battlefield that has yet to be won.

Fifth, strategizing for the pursuit of the ecodev strategic interest through bilateral and multilateral diplomatic channels. This would include the development of norms, alliance building for high-level advocacy and galvanizing global support, and the construction of a global geo-sustainability architecture.

And sixth, human resources and knowledge development. Sufficient understanding of the many aspects of ecodev is relevant not only for substantive developement but also negotiating purposes. It often happens that under particular circumstances, a negotiating diplomat needs a sufficiently profound understanding of ecodev-related issues, or on the reverse side, a negotiating technical official needs to possess the finer skills of diplomacy.

The primary goal of an ecodev-based foreign policy is to facilitate the creation of develiverables by technical agencies. The main foreign policy agency will serve as a catalyst and nexus between the processes at the external and domestic levels. And it is the responsbility of technical ministries to make tangible deliverables. This gives rise to the paramount importance for a proportional manifestation of institutional responsibilities, orchestrated through a workable modality of cooperation and coordination.

The presidential manifesto on sustainable developement with equity is also a doctrine for ecodev-based Indonesian foreign policy. It is the imperative for post-2015 ecodev-based foreign policy. It is the visionary basis for foreign policy that responds to the challenge of a global population of 9 billion by 2050, the increasing scarcity of resources, the rising need for food and energy security and the continued urgency of alleviating poverty.

In today’s world of complex interdependence and continued globalization, the choice of ecodev as a strategic interest does not necessarily augur the insignificance of political and security interests within Indonesia’s foreign policy. It merely aims to place ecodev in a significant position, taking into account its high relevance to Indonesia’s foreign policy. Indeed, it should be recognized that ecodev and polsec (political security) are in fact often interlinked and mutually affecting.

The presidential manifesto has certainly enriched the Indonesian foreign policy tradition. It has helped focus on what are the most pressing issues for Indonesia nowadays. In the future, as Indonesia strives to become a developed country by 2025, the quest for both ecodev and polsec strategic imperatives is crucial.

The writer is an assistant to special staff to the President for international relations. The opinions expressed are his own.

Add CommentShare on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailMore Sharing Services

Geopolitics and geoeconomics in SE Asia: What is RI’s position ?

Beginda Pakpahan, Jakarta | Opinion | Thu, July 05 2012, 9:44 AM - Klipping The Jakarta Post

A- A A+

Paper Edition | Page: 6

Geopolitics and geoeconomics in Southeast Asia are changing faster than ever across the whole region, while the global importance of internal Southeast Asia affairs continues to expand. The two issues of the South China Sea and the proliferation of trade partnerships are at the center of the attention of regional and global players.

What is Indonesia’s position with regard to these two matters? How can we anticipate Indonesia’s response to developments in the region? To what extent could, or should, Indonesia develop or strengthen its position?

It is my opinion that Indonesia should be at the center of contemporary geopolitics and geoeconomics in Southeast Asia, strengthening its capacity and capability to act as a non-aligned stabilizer and as a major, if not the major, player throughout ASEAN.

Establishing and preserving economic stability, while boosting economic development in the region is the primary role of ASEAN. Indonesia as a nation, diplomatic power or economy, can and must be at the heart of the drive toward these objectives. Such is the power of the Indonesian economy that regional stability cannot be attained without us, and therefore could be achieved with our national interests to the fore.

The South China Sea has become an important issue for Indonesia because there are now so many territorial disputes between China and ASEAN countries (the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam). For some time China and the Philippines have been playing a dangerous game of tit for tat with their vessels in Scarborough shoal, which is claimed by both parties as their territory. Both sides have deliberately raised the tension in the area to the extent that China recently issued a warning to its citizens in the Philippines. The Philippines has a commitment from the US to protect what it considers to be Filipino territory, if attacked.

The tension in the South China Sea could easily become an outright war, if not managed effectively.
Australia invited the US to deploy 2,500 marines in Darwin, purportedly to respond to natural disasters in the region. It also has the promise of US surveillance devices to be deployed in the Cocos Islands to monitor activity in the South China Sea.

These developments have not gone unnoticed by China or the members of ASEAN. The South China Sea looks likely to become yet another theater for competition, posturing and saber rattling between China and the US. Geographically, this is a wholly new area of geopolitical tensions and it is our own backyard.

 If the South China Sea represents the new geopolitics, then the proliferation of economic partnerships must surely epitomize the new geoeconomics of Southeast Asia. ASEAN has expanded its economic cooperation with external counterparts through free trade agreements (FTA) and other economic partnership agreements. Several economic agreements are now signed, sealed and in process of delivery, with such neighbors and near-neighbors, as China, India, Australia and New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.

Individual member countries have also reached bilateral economic arrangements, for example: EFTA-Singapore, China-Singapore and Brunei-Japan.

The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is emerging as an important trade agreement in our region.

The TPP member countries are currently New Zealand, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam and Chile. The US, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam and Japan have expressed interest in membership and negotiations to expand go on apace.

While not yet a member of the partnership itself, the US has declared its intention to persuade allies in Southeast Asia to join this organization. Thus, the rapid expansion of trade agreements combined with US promotion of TPP characterizes the new geoeconomics of the area.

Like it or not, Indonesia’s position is at the center of these developments. On the one hand, we are the biggest country in Southeast Asia, with a strategic position in relation to China, the US, Australia, Japan and South Korea.

On the other hand, Indonesia is caught in the middle of the burgeoning rivalry between China and the US on the issues highlighted above: economic and territorial muscle in the region.

Non-aligned and caught between the superpowers, Indonesia is perfectly placed to be a stabilizing influence and honest broker between the two. We have both opportunity and capacity to promote peace and security and foster economic development.

With regard to the geopolitics of Southeast Asia, if Indonesian influence is brought to bear, then perhaps China can be convinced to respect the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea? Indonesia, and perhaps only Indonesia, has the motive and the opportunity to influence the Philippines and China and lessen the tension in the South China Sea.

Indonesia could propose joint sovereignty of disputed sea areas to China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam with the backing of the US and other ASEAN countries. If needs must, Indonesia could impose and police such an arrangement.

Under our leadership, ASEAN and China can create a joint security commission to monitor collective arrangements (e.g. maritime security and energy cooperation) in the South China Sea.

With strong, impartial leadership, China, the Philippines, and other concerned nations may work together to secure and develop the South China Sea without the current atmosphere of fear, distrust and threats.

With regard to the geoeconomics of Southeast Asia, Indonesia can empower ASEAN to reach a common position when responding to the proliferation of economic partnerships in the region. Indonesia should remind and influence other ASEAN countries to act collectively to strengthen FTAs that exist with external counterparts and to empower the East Asia Summit (EAS) as a basis for economic cooperation in East Asia.

The US, Australia and other regional players are members of EAS. In other words, if the will were there, Indonesia could bring about a collective effort of ASEAN, the US and other players to promote the EAS as an axis of economic cooperation.

The writer is a lecturer at the University of Indonesia and a researcher with the University of Edinburgh, UK.