A decade later, US loses global preeminence

Endy M. Bayuni, Washington, DC | Tue, 09/13/2011 7:00 AM A | A | A |-Klipping the Jakarta Post

The Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington changed the United States and the world forever. But nobody would have predicted then that 10 years later, America would be a much weaker nation.

Whether it was because of 9/11 or in spite of it, the United States has lost much of the preeminence that it had attained as the world’s only superpower after the end of the Cold War, ironically even as it seems to be winning the global war on terror which it launched in the wake of the attacks on its soil.

The United States is still the most powerful nation on earth today, but recent events and developments in the world today show that it is rapidly losing much of its power to influence events in just about every part of the world.

Its position is increasingly being challenged by emerging and returning new and old powers in various regions. In Asia it is the rise of China, in the Middle East it has to deal with a defiant Iran and in Europe it is Russia.

More than two years into his presidency, US President Barack Obama has still to fulfill his 2008 election promises to pull the United States out of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Even if he manages to bring all the soldiers home before the November 2012 elections, they will be leaving behind two shaky democratically-elected governments presiding over countries that are continually wracked by endless violence.

Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, the two figures that had symbolized the menacing terror threats to the US, are both dead, but Washington could hardly brag “mission accomplished” in Afghanistan or Iraq if and when its last troops leave.

But it is not only the violence and instability in Iraq and Afghanistan that threaten to unravel the entire region. The US has failed to defuse the nuclear threat from Iran, seen in Washington as the largest threat to peace and stability in the Middle East.

The Arab Spring this year has only complicated matters with one despotic tyrant after another brought down by popular and at times violent uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya while others are clinging to power by responding with greater violence.

Most if not all of these tyrants had enjoyed US support, treated as allies in the global war on terror and as bulwarks against the rise of Islamic radicalism.

How the Middle East is turning out, and what it means for US security interests and its influence, and for the peace prospects between Israel and its Arab neighbors, will not become clear until the region settles into a new equilibrium, which probably will not happen any time soon.

But it is in Asia that US global preeminence has most visibly weakened.

The region may face some equally if not more serious security challenges with tensions in the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan strait and now also in the South China Sea, and also with Islamic radicalism making its presence felt in Southeast Asia, but many of these Asian countries have nevertheless managed to build and develop their economies with impressively high growth rates.

Some in Washington are only now echoing what many in Asia have long argued that the US may have missed out on Asia’s rise while it busied itself with fighting terrorists at home and at source in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The rise of China, albeit peaceful so far, and to a lesser extent of India, has altered the power equation in Asia and has serious implications for the security situation and stability of the region.

An economically stronger China is also increasingly asserting itself in the region as it seeks to secure access to energy and natural resources vital to its booming economy, often putting it in direct competition with US strategic interests in the region.

Fortunately, Washington has allies and friends in Asia who share similar concerns about what a mighty China could do. The US’ “return to Asia” after President Barack Obama came to the White House in 2008, was warmly welcomed by some in the region.

The US may still enjoy vast military superiority, but its power and influence in Asia are being challenged by an increasingly confident China. China in 2010 took over from Japan as the second largest economy in the world. China is also modernizing its military capability and in August put to sea its first aircraft carrier.

Is this the case of the decline of America or, as Fareed Zakaria argues in “Post American World” more the case of the rise of others, most particularly of China, but also including India, Russia, Brazil and one can even throw in Indonesia?

With the US economy remaining weak more than three years after its worst recession in decades, it is looking more and more like the case of the decline of US economic power, and with it, its military and political powers.

Two wars (or two-and-a-half, if one includes the Libya operation) have stretched US resources, particularly when it still has a weak economy and a mountain of debt.

The recent heated debt ceiling debate in Washington and the coming 2012 election virtually guarantee that the US will be consumed by more domestic issues for the coming year, while Asia quietly grows in strides.

Whether this American decline in the past decade has anything to do with the 9/11 attacks, or with the way it responded, is an academic point today.

The US may have dealt with the threat of terrorism against its people and its interests, but it has also lost some of its power and influence in the intervening years.

The United States is not the same superpower it was a decade ago. This in itself has some implications for its strategic security interests.

The rest of the world changed with the United States after 9/11, but it seems to have set its own pace and direction independently. This is certainly true for much of Asia.

The writer is a visiting fellow at the East West Center in Washington and a senior editor with The Jakarta Post.