Insight: ASEAN, China and the chance of a collision at sea

Rizal Sukma, Jakarta | Headlines | Thu, December 13 2012, 11:32 AM

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In 2011, when Indonesia chaired ASEAN, the prospects for managing the problems in the South China Sea appeared promising.

After almost a decade since the Declaration of Conduct (DoC) in the South China Sea was agreed to in 2002, China finally agreed in July 2011 to sign off on guidelines for its implementation.

Expectations were high that ASEAN and China would be a step closer to reaching an agreement on the more binding Code of Conduct (CoC) in the South China Sea, which would provide a framework for joint cooperation, a mechanism to prevent conflicts and to manage crises whenever they arose.

However, expectations began to wane as the ASEAN Summit in November 2012 in Phnom Penh did not result in an agreement between China and ASEAN on when CoC talks would officially proceed.

China continued to insist at the summit that the discussion on the CoC could only take place “when the time is ripe”. Indeed, the absence of significant progress on the CoC has again raised international and regional concerns about peace and stability in the region.

Such concerns are not groundless. Recent developments in the South China Sea point to a growing risk of misperceptions and miscalculations, which could in turn increase the potential for new tensions among claimant states and other regional stakeholders.

What has happened over the last few weeks after the November ASEAN Summit is of particular concern here.

First, China issued a new passport that included a map with a dotted line that includes a disputed area of the South China Sea. The move immediately invited strong reaction not only from claimant states such as Vietnam and the Philippines, but also from Indonesia. Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa described the move as “disingenuous, like testing the waters to see the reaction of its neighbors”. While the map has no legal effect, it does add a new complication to the already rising tensions in the relationship between China and other claimants.

Second, there have also been strong reactions toward the passing of new regulations by Hainan province to allow its public security border defense units to board and search vessels illegally entering waters under Hainan’s jurisdiction. While China clearly has the right to do so within its territorial seas and internal waters, the regulations have created confusion, due to the different interpretations by other countries regarding the vague reference to “waters under Hainan’s administration”.

Third, in early December, Vietnam complained about the latest incident, in which it accused Chinese fishing boats of cutting a seismic cable of one its oil exploration ships near the Gulf of Tonkin. As similar incidents have also taken place in the past, the latest complaint from Vietnam clearly suggests that tensions remain high between the two claimants. Vietnam has also announced that it would send more patrols to protect its fisheries in the South China Sea.

Fourth, India, whose state-run oil company Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) previously signed an agreement with Vietnam’s national oil company, Petro Vietnam, to explore oil and gas in the South China Sea, has begun to take a more assertive stand. Indian Navy chief Adm. DK Joshi remarked that India was prepared to send warships to protect its interests in the South China Sea.

What makes these developments even more worrying is the fact that they have taken place within the
already-tense strategic context in the region. For one, there have been increasing concerns among regional states about the prospect of Sino-US rivalry, which could spill over to the South China Sea.

ASEAN countries are also increasingly worried about the breakdown of unity among its members over this issue, especially in the face of China’s growing assertiveness. India-China relations could also become another factor.

As tensions escalate and the risk of misperceptions and miscalculations grow, the urgency for a mechanism to prevent conflicts and manage crises has become even more pressing. Despite the absence of progress on the talks about the CoC, China and ASEAN need to double their efforts in 2013 to find a new compromise that will facilitate progress. Otherwise, we are all destined to collide at sea, and that is definitely not a scenario that we want.

The writer is executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.