Historical ambiguity swirls in isles dispute

Ashwini Devare, Singapore | Opinion | Wed, February 13 2013, 7:02 AM

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The solitary islands of the East China Sea used to be the fancy of poets and fishermen. But today, these rocky outposts are at the heart of a tug of war churning the waters between Asia’s two biggest economies. The cluster of islands, which Japan calls Senkaku and China, Diaoyu, have become the lightning rod for what is seen as the worst downslide in bilateral relations between the two Asian powers, in 40 years.

“What really matters right now is who is physically occupying these islets. It is a fact that China did not show any serious interest in the Senkakus until the late 1960s when it was speculated that they were rich in oil, gas and other mineral deposits in the seas around the islands”, says KV Kesavan, an East Asia specialist at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

The five uninhabited islands that stand 400 kilometers off Okinawa, are submerged in the conflicting historical legacies of China, Japan and Taiwan (also a claimant), thus complicating the sovereignty issue of the isles.

Japan pegs its ownership of the Senkaku to 1895, claiming the islands were terra nullius, or belonging to no one when it took control of them. Japan refutes Chinese claims that it seized the islands following its victory over China in 1895, under the treaty of Shimonoseki, which ended the Sino-Japanese war.

With Japan’s surrender in the World War II, these desolate islands acquired new owners. The Americans took military control of the Senkaku and Okinawa, transferring them back to Japan only in 1972. Experts say the US intentionally left the ownership issue ambiguous, not wishing to hurt a rapprochement with China under then US president Nixon.

Despite their close trade ties, the stormy exchange between China and Japan, the world’s second and third largest economies continues to escalate.

China squarely rejects Japan’s 19th century assertion of ownership. It traces its legitimacy over the Diaoyu back to the 14th century, to the Ming and Qing dynasties, claiming Chinese envoys and traders discovered the islands during their maritime voyages. The Chinese still harbor deep resentment toward Japan’s military past, accusing it of seizing the islands from China during its imperial expansion. Furnishing ancient maps to bolster its case, China states the islands undisputedly belong to them.

The current intransigence over these islands underscores the importance of historical interpretation, given that the sovereignty issue of the islands is inextricably linked to the chronological lineage of the sparring nations.

With each country pegging its claim to a historical precedent, it makes a resolution of the problem intractable. While every nation has a fundamental right to its own version of history, experts say, there is also an urgent need to accommodate solutions that are acceptable to all.

A similar saber-rattling is reverberating across the South China Sea, making these busy sea-lanes choppier than usual. The theme is familiar — a race for resources fueled by rising nationalism, with China as the common denominator. Vietnam and China are fighting over the Paracel islands that lie southeast of China’s Hainan Island. Further south, high tides are battering the Spratlys, contested by China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.

To assert its ownership, China is using the controversial nine-dash line, a map that demarcates its control over more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, including the Paracel and Spratly islands. This line has riled Southeast Asian nations, who say it violates international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS. The Philippines, which is protesting Chinese assertions over the Scarborough Shoal, has taken the dispute to a UNCLOS tribunal. A move it says it was forced to take after peaceful negotiations failed.

While no one really knows the extent of oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea, estimates vary. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) pegs it at around 30 billion barrels, while China estimates nearly 200 billion barrels exist, calling it the “new Persian Gulf”.

Hungry for resources, China is therefore not likely to steer clear from these waters anytime soon. “Resource nationalism”, explains professor Thayer, “has trumped international law and common sense”.

Meanwhile, China is keeping a watchful eye on the United States deepening interest in Southeast Asia, a region with which China shares a flourishing business and economic partnership, and is its top trading partner.

China is wary of US President Barack Obama’s “rebalance” or “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region, a policy translated in Chinese as America’s “return to Asia”. China maintains it wants bilateral solutions with each of the claimants in the South China Sea, and is opposed to the so-called “internationalization” of the issue, involving the United States.

“The Obama administration’s ‘rebalancing’ moves portend a worrying trajectory for the Sino-American strategic relationship,” says Zhu Feng, deputy director of the school of international studies at Peking University. China, according to Zhu, is feeling insecure at what it perceives as America’s growing clout in Southeast Asia. ASEAN countries, he advises, should not alienate China by engaging deeper with the US.

In both the East and South China Seas, history and geography are inextricably linked. The region cannot escape the preponderance of the past, yet it cannot allow it to overshadow the future.

The monsoons lashing Southeast Asia will recede in the coming weeks, but the powerful currents ripping through one of the world’s most vital shipping arteries are unlikely to ease anytime soon. The potential bounty of undiscovered oil and gas reserves that lie deep underneath these waters will continue to test the peace and stability of the region, making it a potentially dangerous military flashpoint.

The writer is a freelance journalist based in Singapore and a former reporter for BBC Asia.