In China, Panetta Says American Focus on Asia Is No Threat

Pool photo by Larry Downing

Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta ate lunch with cadets on Wednesday at a People’s Liberation Army academy in Beijing.

By THOM SHANKER and IAN JOHNSON

Published: September 18, 2012 - Klipping The International Herald Tribune

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BEIJING — Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta declared Wednesday that the United States was not trying to contain a rising China, and he emphasized that with patience and effort current tensions between the giant rivals on opposite sides of the Pacific could be resolved.

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Pool photo by Larry Downing

Mr. Panetta, left,  met with China’s presumptive next leader, Vice President Xi Jinping.

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Pool photo by Larry Downing

Cadets listened to Mr. Panetta at the Armored Forces Engineering Academy.

Mr. Panetta concluded a three-day visit in Beijing with a high-profile session with China’s presumptive next leader, Vice President Xi Jinping, an encounter that required Mr. Panetta to stay an extra day. He also participated in a discussion with future commanders at a People’s Liberation Army academy.

The meeting with Mr. Xi in the Great Hall of the People was viewed as additional proof that Mr. Xi was clear of whatever physical or political ailments had pushed him from public view for two weeks and had prompted speculation about whether he would ascend to China’s top post. Mr. Xi greeted Mr. Panetta with a vigorous handshake and a broad smile, and he said the meeting “would be very helpful in further advancing” ties between the United States and China.

Mr. Panetta echoed that sentiment. “We are two great Pacific nations with common concerns,” he told Mr. Xi. “We want to begin what you have called a ‘new model’ relationship, and we can begin with better military-to-military relations. I am convinced that we will be able to improve our dialogue.”

According to Xinhua, China’s official news agency, Mr. Xi addressed the heated sovereignty conflict with Japan over several tiny islands, strongly condemning Japan’s purchase of them as “a farce.” Mr. Xi was also quoted as saying to Mr. Panetta, “Japan should rein in its behavior and stop any words and acts that undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

But it appeared that the Chinese and American delegations were more intent on avoiding conflict over their often-competing policies, not arguing about them. For instance, after Mr. Panetta’s meeting Tuesday with the Chinese defense minister, Gen. Liang Guanglie, the general made public comments about the dispute with Japan, threatening Japan with unspecified “further actions,” but made no mention of the fact that the defense secretary of Japan’s closest military ally was standing next to him.

Mr. Panetta reiterated American policy that Washington would take no sides in territorial disputes across the region and was urging all parties to seek a peaceful, negotiated settlement.

Mr. Panetta’s weeklong mission to Japan, China and New Zealand was intended to show allies that the United States’ planned strategic rebalancing toward Asia is a reality, not just talk. But he also was seeking to reassure Beijing that the new American focus on the region, which includes shifting some military resources from others regions to Asia and the Pacific, is not a threat to China.

“Our rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region is not an attempt to contain China,” Mr. Panetta said Wednesday in a speech to People’s Liberation Army officers and cadets. “It is an attempt to engage China and expand its role in the Pacific.”

Mr. Panetta said at the Armored Forces Engineering Academy that a Chinese warship would be invited to join a major Pacific exercise hosted by the United States in waters off Hawaii, and he lauded Chinese cooperation in antipiracy missions off the Horn of Africa.

Mr. Xi’s meeting with Mr. Panetta coincided with remarks by a former chief executive of Hong Kong, Tung Chee-hwa, that Mr. Xi’s earlier absence from public view had been tied to a back injury sustained while swimming.

Mr. Xi was not seen in public during the first two weeks of September, giving rise to a variety of rumors: that he had hurt his back, or had a heart attack or was in political trouble. Although Mr. Tung’s comments in a television interview in New York were not official, they were the first on-the-record remarks on the matter by a person close to the Chinese leadership. During Mr. Xi’s absence, Chinese officials refused to comment.

Mr. Panetta was asked to assess Mr. Xi and the intrigue surrounding his absence from public view. “Frankly, my impression was that he was very healthy and very engaged,” Mr. Panetta said during a session with reporters. “I guess you’ll have to ask them what issues were involved here.”

He said Chinese leaders had urged that the American rebalancing in Asia not be solely military, but should include enhanced diplomatic and economic engagement as well.

“These interactions made it clear to me that the leaders of both of our countries are sincerely working toward the same goal: to build a sustained and substantive United States-China defense relationship that supports the broader United States-China cooperative partnership,” Mr. Panetta said. “That is why an essential element of our rebalancing effort is the constructive bilateral relationship with China.” Mr. Panetta said he and his Chinese counterparts had discussed the expanding realm of computer network warfare. The United States has blamed people from China and Russia for many of the recent cyberattacks on American government computer networks.

Despite the friendly official meetings this week, signs of underlying tensions lingered. On Tuesday, the American ambassador’s car was surrounded by protesters, apparently concerned about the island-sovereignty dispute with Japan, as it tried to enter the compound. The car, in which the ambassador, Gary Locke, was riding, was quickly freed by Chinese police officers and entered the embassy.

“It was all over in a matter of minutes,” Mr. Locke told reporters traveling with Mr. Panetta. “I never felt in any danger.”

While in Beijing, Pentagon officials also announced an accord on an issue that has vexed Washington’s relations with Tokyo, where Mr. Panetta visited earlier this week.

Residents on the Japanese island of Okinawa had protested the deployment of the Marine Corps tilt-rotor troop transport called the Osprey, which has had a series of crashes. It had arrived in Okinawa but had been ordered not to fly. That ban has now been lifted and the Ospreys can fly, the officials said. But it was not clear how the deal would affect tensions on Okinawa.

Panetta Announces Warmer Military Ties on New Zealand Trip

By THOM SHANKER

Published: September 20, 2012 - Klipping The International Herald Tribune

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AUCKLAND, New Zealand — Defense Secretary Leon E. Panettaarrived in this South Pacific island nation Friday, becoming the first Pentagon chief to visit here in three decades, an absence prompted by a breakdown in ties after New Zealand prohibited American nuclear warships from its territorial waters.

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In a sign of Washington’s efforts to increase military-to-military cooperation, Mr. Panetta announced that the Obama administration had modified United States policy so that, in the future, the defense secretary can authorize individual visits by New Zealand naval vessels to Defense Department or Coast Guard facilities.

Although New Zealand now participates in American-led naval exercises, its ships must dock at commercial ports in the United States, and not at military bases — a reciprocal ban in response to that imposed by New Zealand on American warships.

New Zealand has pulled its Special Operations forces from Afghanistan and will focus on training local security troops, but it still has about 180 troops on the ground there operating a provincial reconstruction team. The dangers remain: New Zealand has lost 10 troops in combat, including 5 in August alone. One of those killed was the first female combat death in the nation’s history, officials said.

“The deep respect the United States military has for the New Zealand defense forces has only grown over this decade of war,” Mr. Panetta said.

Mr. Panetta also confirmed during the visit that the United States had completed its drawdown of 33,000 “surge” troops in Afghanistan.“As we reflect on this moment, it is an opportunity to recognize that the surge accomplished its objectives of reversing Taliban momentum on the battlefield, and dramatically increased the size and capability of the Afghan National Security Forces,” he said in a statement. He added, “It is important to underscore that even as our surge troops return home, there are roughly 68,000 Americans who remain in a tough fight in Afghanistan, alongside their NATO and Afghan partners.”

Improving relations between the United States and New Zealand hve resulted in the two countries signing new documents to re-establish avenues for dialogue and pledging cooperation on Asia-Pacific security issues.

Even so, Mr. Panetta said he did not push for a renewed, formal mutual-defense treaty with New Zealand. This final stop on a weeklong mission that included visits to Japan and China was intended more broadly to nurture closer military-to-military ties with an important South Pacific security partner.

That sentiment was echoed by New Zealand’s defense minister, Jonathan Coleman, who said there was no need to recreate the treaty alliance canceled in 1986. Both nations “are enjoying the benefits” of a growing security partnership, he said, without “reverting back to the way things were.”

He said that New Zealand’s continued prohibition on nuclear warships would remain in place but was no longer a hindrance to security cooperation with the United States.

Both defense officials said areas of increased military cooperation between the countries could include efforts to counter piracy and halt nuclear proliferation, as well as joining forces for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.

The last defense secretary to visit was Caspar W. Weinberger in 1982.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: September 21, 2012

An earlier version of this article misspelled the given name of New Zealand’s defense minister. He is Jonathan Coleman, not Jonathon.

Asean mulls 'new political channels' to address maritime disputes

Asia News Network (Rasmei Kampuchea Daily) | World | Thu, September 20 2012, 1:58 PM

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ASEAN lawmakers are considering setting up an advisory group of high-level parliamentarians to create "new political channels" to address disputes in the South China Sea.

The proposed body, which would advise ASEAN, is included in a draft political resolution being discussed at the annual meeting of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA) in Indonesia this week.

The meeting got underway on the island of Lombok on Sunday and is scheduled to last until Saturday. It follows the failure of ASEAN foreign ministers to adopt a joint statement at their annual meeting in Phnom Penh in July in the absence of a regional consensus on the South China Sea.

China has territorial claims in the South China Sea that compete or overlap with those of ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

The "Resolution on the Situation in the South China Sea" is among 11 resolutions expected to be adopted by the ASEAN lawmakers meeting this week.

According to the draft, AIPA lawmakers are "deeply concerned" about the "escalation of conflict among the claimant states arising from the overlapping jurisdictional and territorial claims in the South China Sea."

It resolves "to consider to establish an AIPA Eminent Persons Group composed of high-level representatives from AIPA Member Parliaments to create new political channels for negotiation and to provide advice to ASEAN in its efforts to find a durable solution of disputes in the South China Sea."

It also requests all member parliaments to "develop preventive diplomacy through dialogues and political negotiation to avoid the disputes escalating into conflicts among the parties concerned."

At the same time, it encourages ASEAN members and China "to expedite the negotiation and conclusion of a regional code of conduct."

It also urges "all claimant states to clarify their claims and to reiterate their full commitment to peacecul solution of disputes in the South China Sea in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea."

The draft resolution does not mention the failure of foreign ministers to issue their customary joint communique in July. But it notes "with appreciation" the Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea that were adopted and released after the meeting in Phnom Penh.

Senior ASEAN foreign ministry officials are expected to discuss the South China Sea issue at a retreat in Thailand next month ahead an East Asian Summit chaired by Prime Minister Hun Sen in Phnom Penh in November.

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South China Sea: Remaining idle is not an option

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Imron Cotan, Beijing | Opinion | Wed, September 19 2012, 9:34 AM

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Without fanfare, the third Seminar of “China-Indonesia Relations: Strengthening Partnership and Deepening Regional Cooperation”, jointly organized by the Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs (CPIFA) and Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) went smoothly in Beijing a few days ago.

This 1.5 track diplomacy was well attended by noted academicians, journalists and thinkers from both sides. Former vice president Jusuf Kalla also attended the seminar and underscored the strategic importance of Sino-Indonesia relations in the maintenance of regional peace, stability and prosperity.

As predicted, the discussions centered on the South China Sea, an issue which has recently attracted a lot of attention the world over. All participants agreed that this conflict cannot be resolved in the near future.

There is, therefore, an urgent need for all related parties to speedily overcome the simmering tensions, as it may push some to miscalculate.

The stakes are high. These are some statistics why it is so.

Since ASEAN accepted China as a full dialogue partner in 1996 at the 29th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM), the ASEAN+1 cooperation has expanded to cover a wide-ranging cooperation with 11 priority areas, namely: agriculture, information and communication technology, human resources development, investment, Mekong River Basin Development, transportation, energy, culture, tourism, public health and environment.

China is currently the second-largest economy in the world with a national reserve of around US$3.5 trillion. With approximately $1.92 trillion budget for the fiscal year 2012, China’s economy is only second to the US whose budget stood at $3.796 trillion. It is expected that in the near future China will overtake the US as the largest economy in the world; an economy that ASEAN cannot afford to miss out on.

Meanwhile, China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) to ASEAN countries reached $4.4 billion in 2010. In the tourism sector, China sent approximately 4.5 million travelers to ASEAN and both sides have set a target that two-way tourist arrivals should reach 15 million by 2015.

ASEAN-China trade has continued to grow. The volume of two-way trade jumped from only $7.96 billion in 1991 to $362 billion in 2011, representing an average annual growth of more than 20 percent. China has now become ASEAN biggest trading partner. Likewise, ASEAN has become China’s third-largest trading partner, thanks partly to the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which has been in operation since January 2010.

China has also taken a series of important steps to deepen and widen its relationship with ASEAN countries by inter alia, providing additional $10 billion loans to ASEAN countries, including $4 billion preferential loans; establishing ASEAN-China Committee on Connectivity Cooperation; and setting up ASEAN-China Maritime Cooperation Fund of RMB 3 billion (US$476 million).

On the other hand, ASEAN’s economies are also performing well.

With around 600 million inhabitants, approximately 10 percent of the world’s population, ASEAN is a huge market for China. It also controls the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, the busiest sea-lanes in the world, through which half of the world’s trade and one-third of oil export passes.

ASEAN countries’ combined GDP was approximately $1.8 trillion in 2010, the ninth biggest economy in the world and the third after China and Japan in Asia; a market which China can continue to tap into.

If the current standoff over the South China Sea continues unabated, both sides will definitely stand to suffer. Besides, it will run counter to the mutually acceptable principle that the ASEAN+1 mechanism is the prime mover in molding the regional architecture in which ASEAN is in the driving seat.

It is, therefore, in the best interest of both sides to ensure that ASEAN+1 remains solid and united in dealing with the multi-facetted challenges the region is currently confronted with.

It is, therefore, the duty of all ASEAN+1 countries to take necessary measures to keep bilateral ties growing steadily and healthily, shelving their differences and concentrating instead on cooperation, as the paramount leader Deng Xiaoping once wisely suggested.

A prompt negotiation of the code of conduct can certainly serve as an excellent step in that direction, thereby avoiding misunderstanding and miscalculation.

It is against this backdrop that the strategic importance of the seminar has to be seen. It definitely can help contribute to developing and nurturing mutual understanding among countries of ASEAN+1.

It is not an easy task. It is a Herculean one, requiring our common endeavor and common resolve.

Staying put is not an option.

The writer is a Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy graduate and currently serves as Indonesian ambassador to China concurrently to Mongolia. Views expressed in this article are his and do not necessarily reflect the Indonesian government’s policy.

The meaning of Hillary Clinton’s visit to Asia

Frassminggi Kamasa, Wellington | Opinion | Tue, September 18 2012, 11:01 AM

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US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was on her Asian tour earlier this month. Her discussions touched on many issues, from the South China Sea (SCS) territorial dispute to the crisis in Syria.

In Timor Leste, she sought to advance economic development in the region and issued US$6.5 million in scholarship grants.

While in Jakarta, Clinton urged ASEAN countries to unite in solving territorial issues with China.

She also reiterated strong US support for the regional initiative to ease rising tensions over the disputed island in the SCS.

In China, she was assertive in conveying possible resolutions to the SCS territorial dispute. She also spoke about the Syrian situation, with Clinton asking China, which keeps on blocking the UN Security Council’s move to sanction Syria, to stop backing the regime of President Bashar Assad.

It seems that Clinton’s visit has failed to persuade the Chinese as Beijing remains a staunch supporter of the Assad regime. Beijing also reiterated that the SCC territorial dispute is an issue of Chinese sovereignty and integrity, and isonly willing to discuss it through bilateral talks.

Her tour ended in Brunei in a move to buttress escalating SCS conflict and to coax Brunei in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2013.

But what is the meaning of her visit to Asia?

First, she is reaffirming the US’s “pivotal” role in the Asia Pacific; the US wants to revive its economic weight in the region.

There is no doubt that the center of economic gravity has now shifted to Asia, and Southeast Asia has a strategic role to play concerning this trend.

Second, it is a way for the US to critically evaluate its choices for crafting a strategy for Asia Pacific in the midst of a rising China.

In my view, there are only three courses; whether the US recapitalizes its forces in the region, encourages its allies to take on larger security responsibilities or limits its commitments.

Third, this may have been seen as a “divide-and-rule” strategy used by the US to weaken China’s political, economic and security influences in the region. As for that case, ASEAN countries have the dilemma of presenting themselves equally to the US and China.

Fourth, encircling China in preparation for a US centered hegemonic order. The US envisages itself as a “pivot” to Asia Pacific, where it can use its leadership in the shaping of the region and its future.

In the new US Defense Strategic Review (January 2012), it is mentioned that the challenge posed by a rising China is at the very heart of America’s new defense strategy in the region.

Fifth, to view the importance of Chinese shipping lanes and Sea Lines of Communication from the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean and Malacca Strait. With the visit to Timor Leste, it also highlights the geostrategic importance of the eastern flank of Indonesia.

Eighty percent of China’s oil imports still pass through the Malacca Strait and this is why it is a vital choke point. However, the US seems to have a contingency plan in the eastern part of Indonesia if the crisis erupts.

Sixth, the US wants its traditional alliances in the region to relax and feel secure with its growing military capabilities in Asia, and to not appear to be at odds with China.

The US does not want any rivalry within the region as the guarantor of peace and stability. The US’ plans to deploy new missile defenses can be seen from this context.

Last but not least, the US wants to reaffirm its presence and influence in the region, or at least to neutralize China in order to sustain the status-quo.

China’s desire to reduce US influence is an uneasy fact for the US. The “battle” of ensuring order in Asia Pacific then rests on how the US continues and consolidates its current pattern of hegemonic order.

ASEAN countries are at risk of division if they cannot, internally, find solutions to break the “battle” of this regional leadership between US and China.

Outside of intra-ASEAN and the EU; China, Japan and the US continue to be ASEAN’s major trade partners. China is the fastest growing partner with its growth tipping more than 10-fold since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

While the US and Japan remained to be the top providers of ASEAN inflows for 2010, outside the EU and intra-ASEAN.

It is likely that the visit of the secretary of state will yield a closer relationship with the Asia Pacific

and greater commitment from the US toward the territorial dispute in the SCS.

This can be seen as an extended deterrence of China for the sake of US interest. The structure of competition and cooperation coexist in Asia.

ASEAN has a strategic balancing role within the region to maintain its independent voice and constructive role in the international community. It employs three general strategies, which are bridge building, engagement and hedging to maintain strategic stability and minimize risk.

Indonesia therefore plays a vital role as it must become the glue for the cohesiveness of ASEAN and because of her free and active foreign policy she can give structure and be the bridge between the US and China.

The writer is an international relations student at Victoria University of Wellington.

A changing Indonesia in the eyes of the United States

Tasa Nugraza Barley, Jakarta | Opinion | Sun, September 16 2012, 10:25 AM

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Beyond the 1,000 police personnel deployed around the capital during the recent two-day visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, there was an important message she was implicitly conveying: Indonesia is a very important partner to work with.

Since her appointment as secretary of state, a position regarded as the most prestigious in the US Cabinet, Clinton has visited Indonesia twice, complementing President Barack Obama’s trip in 2010.

The reason behind these three formal visits of the two highest-ranking US officials in less than three years must be deeper than the fact that President Obama spent a few years living in Jakarta when he was a boy.

Clinton’s visit was more than just ceremonial. Although it was a brief one, her visit was a sign that the US is looking for a strong, sustainable relationship with Indonesia, and that’s something we should all be proud of.

Indonesia, a country that a decade ago was considered an economic failure, has successfully turned itself into a new political and economic force in the region.

During the Soeharto regime, Indonesia was the true leader of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN). But when our economy plunged to the bottom of the pool in the late 1990s, our political strength in the region slowly faded away.

However, due to our economic recovery and relatively stable political condition, it is a different
situation now.

This year, Indonesia’s political resurgence in the region was marked by its strategic diplomacy in mediating the disputes over the South China Sea, a resource-rich area contested by several Southeast Asian countries, such as Brunei, Malaysia and Philippines, and the world’s new emerging power, China.

For the first time in the history of ASEAN, since its establishment in 1967, the 10 members failed to issue the traditional joint communique at the end of the association’s recent summit in Cambodia.

Tensions between the ASEAN members heated up when Cambodia, which is a close ally to China, refused to read a statement mentioning Scarborough Shoal, an area in the South China Sea that recently sparked both political and military tensions between on the one side, Vietnam and the Philippines and, on the other, China.

In politics, as it is in international relations, it is all about momentum. And it was Indonesia, a country with the largest population in the region, which decided to grab this rare
opportunity in an attempt to regain its crown.

With its political supremacy declining in the Asia-Pacific region over the last few years, overshadowed by China’s ability to push its agenda due to its fast-growing economy, the US needs to build stronger alliances with countries like
Indonesia.

Although the US government has repeatedly mentioned its objectiveness over the South China Sea, everyone knows that the area is too important to ignore. It is estimated that one-third of the world’s shipping passes through its waters, not to mention that the area is also believed to possess huge oil and gas reserves.

The United States is likely to use all its influence to ensure that China is not the only “owner” of the South China Sea. With the help of countries like Indonesia, the US hopes that Chinese expansion can be
reduced significantly.

Besides the politics, the United States cannot underestimate Indonesia’s economic potential. In 2011, US investment in the country reached US$2.5 billion, a figure that is predicted to double within the next two years.

With its stable, above-world average economic growth, Indonesia is among the few countries that is not impacted by the current European crisis, due in part to its low reliance on international trade. In addition, the country’s current strong economy is backed up by national consumer spending, accounting for about 60 percent of the nation’s
economic activities.

Given all these economic indicators, the US will only want to increase its investment in Indonesia, and Clinton’s visit should be seen as the US government’s effort to ensure that their companies and investors can enjoy political backup.

Although it is still too soon to announce that the US and Indonesia have a perfect alliance, the Indonesian government should be able to use this momentum as leverage to participate on the world’s political and economic stage. If not now, when? Some opportunities just don’t come a second time.

The writer is an associate at Royston Advisory, a public affairs and strategic communications firm.

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Notes on US election and Hillary Clinton’s visit

Dinna Wisnu, Jakarta | Opinion | Tue, September 04 2012, 5:43 AM

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These past few weeks have been a time for political parties in the United States to hold their conventions. We have seen how Republican nominee Mitt Romney was praised, made his “big speech”, introduced his family members, reached out to non-traditional voters of the Republican party and revealed his choice of vice president.

Soon, we will hear the big speech of President Barack Obama at the Democratic Party’s convention. To Americans, the conventions might strengthen confidence in voting for someone.

To the world, the conventions provide an opportunity to witness the competition in US politics, the agendas critical to voters in the country, and hence the direction of future US engagement with other countries.

It is clear now that Americans care most about their pocketbooks and how the future president can change the luck of America’s macro economy for the better.

The gist of the debate becomes: should we give President Obama a further chance to deliver the promises he made in 2008 or should we give someone else a chance? It’s a tough call indeed.

Yet for non-Americans, the dilemma among Americans has clear implications for us. We understand that whoever is elected will prioritize strengthening the US economy.

Any talks, visits, dialogs with the US would actually have the embedded agenda of fixing the US economy. Each will have its own ramification on how the US handles bilateral, regional and multilateral engagement built in the past.

In that case, who is more important to the US now than the economically beaming Asians? Well, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would say that not just Asia is very important but all Asia-Pacific countries. Facing the Democratic convention, she is currently traveling to six countries in the Asia Pacific where any small and big countries matter in the eyes of US politics.

She is scheduled to visit Cook islands (in order to meet officials from tiny island countries across the Pacific, as well as Australia and New Zealand), Indonesia, China, Timor Leste and Brunei, and then she’ll head off to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Vladivostok, Russia. On these visits, Clinton will touch on issues important to the region, namely the contestation of power in the South China Sea, trade and food security.

There is another important agenda at hand, which is to demonstrate US attention to even the smallest nation-states scattered across Asia. The foreign policy duet of Obama-Clinton took the approach of embracing influential countries like Indonesia and India and reaching out to those that have not been given a pat-on-the-back by high-ranking US officials for decades, such as Laos and Myanmar.

And then what? Both the Democratic camp and the Republicans have made it clear that they have serious concerns over the rise of China, both in economic power and defense capacity. China is depicted as not taking enough “responsibility” in its rise to the region or to the world.

Last November, the Pentagon said that by 2020 roughly 60 percent
of its naval fleet would be stationed in the Asia-Pacific region, and it was also considering deploying sea-borne anti-missile systems in East Asia. The first of 2,500 US marines arrived a few months ago. Yet this is not enough.

Romney showed his desire to maintain a strong military presence in the Pacific, engage India, Indonesia and Taiwan in order to monitor aggressive behavior in disputed waters and preserve open trade routes for the US. Romney believes that the US should supply Taiwan with “adequate aircraft and other military platforms” to reinforce maritime domain awareness; employ radar and other detection networks to prevent surprise confrontations and military miscalculations.

Both Democrats and Republicans are sending signals that cooperation with the US is always better than confrontation and that the era of US hegemony is far from over.

Clinton said: “We [the US] are prepared to lead [the world] … whenever the US has experienced setbacks, we have overcome them through reinvention and innovation. Our capacity to come back stronger is unmatched in modern history.”

Of course, who could forget that the US has the largest defense budget and military and nuclear capacity in the world?

Despite China’s military build-up, its overall defense budget remains only a fraction of that the US. Who could not notice that US military bases are everywhere in nearly every corner of the world, with more than 1,000 bases in total (Connie Bakrie, Seputar Indonesia Aug. 8)? Yet, the US has stated that it would beef up its defense, military and nuclear capacity.

It also plans to expand alliances with Australia from a Pacific partnership to an Indo-Pacific one, disarm and be firmer with North Korea and do more strategic things together with Asia-Pacific countries.

In the past, we witnessed the US grow into a protectionist country during its difficult economic time. This time, the US pledged commitment to integration with the world market and has praised regional free-trade initiatives (including the controversial US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement). Will this improve the Americans’ pocketbooks fast enough?

The eerie alternative option of the past is the use of war and military tension to create jobs, attract investment and rally the support of Americans for their leader. War and military tension would energize the defense industry, as well as its supply chains.

Sure, it’s morally costly, but surprisingly we are seeing that Democrats and Republicans are converging in the view on taking firmer action vis-à-vis those being in the way of US interests.

Clinton said that the US was keeping a cool head in engaging with other countries; but what’s the guarantee? Clinton has said she would step down even if Obama is re-elected.

How Indonesia reacts and nurtures relations with the US, China and other countries will matter a lot in the next few years. Tension between the US and China is simmering and the tools for aggression are in place already.

When leaders of these countries find comfort in making threats, accusations and looking powerful through military showdown, it is not impossible that the jitters over a preemptive strike could spread to other countries. Robert Kaplan said last year that the future of world war is in Asia, potentially in the South China Sea. Nobody wants this prediction to materialize.

In light of the visit of Hillary Clinton to Jakarta this week, it is clear that what Indonesia allows will make a difference in the seas of Asia Pacific. Clinton would seek Indonesia’s support in heightened US “presence” in Asia. But the problem here is to alleviate military tension, accusations and threats coming from either the US or China.

The Comprehensive Partnership between the US and Indonesia should not stop short of military exercises or rejuvenating weapons, because it would send the wrong signal on where Indonesia stands in all of this. The time is ripe to urge the implementation of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation by the US; pushing it to refrain from escalating tension and surrounding Asia with deadly weapons.

Even if open war does not happen, the worst that could happen in this region from all of this is deep divides, particularly those that cut deep into ASEAN and its Plus members. Indonesia may not be interested in aligning with either the US or China, but the tough homework would be to inspire other countries to do the same.

The source of current and future economic growth is in Asia. There is enough potential for growth for everyone when opportunities and challenges are managed peacefully.

The writer is co-founder and director, Paramadina Graduate School of Diplomacy in Jakarta.

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