Domino effect of Indonesia’s CTBT ratification

Kemal Azis Stamboel, Jakarta | Mon, 12/12/2011 8:34 PM A | A | A | - Klipping The Jakarta Post

Finally, the House of Representatives has ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) more than a decade after the government signed the anti-nuclear accord.

The CTBT is an international treaty that regulates the prohibi-tion of all forms of nuclear testing for both military and civilian purposes.

Since the discovery of nuclear technology, at least 2,000 nuclear bombs have been detonated in various parts of the world either in the form of underground bombs, air bombs or underwater bombs.

As of 2010, more than 182 countries had signed the CTBT, with 151 of them having ratified it. However, the CTBT will not be acknowledged as a binding international law if all the 44 countries listed in the Annex 2 (states with nuclear potential) do not ratify the treaty.

Since Indonesia ratified the CTBT on Dec. 6, 2011, five Annex 2 states — China, Egypt, the United States, Israel and Iran — remain non-parties to the treaty.

Indonesia’s decision to join the club of parties to the CTBT demonstrates the nature of its foreign policy that is dedicated to world peace.

The ratification is not just a matter of Indonesia’s responsibility in advancing world peace, however, as there are some short-term strategic goals Indonesia can expect to reach.

First, by signing the treaty Indonesia can develop technology related to the verification of nuclear testing by utilizing technical assistance within the framework of the CTBT verification provided for countries that ratify the CTBT.

Furthermore, Indonesia can improve its human resources expertise through technology transfers in the fields of geophysics and verification of nuclear tests as well as increase opportunities to hold important
positions within the CTBT organization.

Second, Indonesia can play a strategic role as a prime mover of global efforts to push the US and other world powers to ratify the CTBT. Since the inception of the treaty, Indonesia had always opted to wait and see the US response to the treaty.

With the administration of President Barack Obama tending to urge the Congress to ratify the treaty, Indonesia’s ratification of the accord might encourage the US Congress to follow suit.

Debates have been rife within the US Congress whether the ratification would harm the country’s national interests. But Indonesia’s ratification might convince the Congress the treaty will do more good than harm.

China, India and Pakistan may soon ratify the CTBT. As suggested by Yukio Hatoyama, a former Japan prime minister, all this time, China is reluctant to ratify the CTBT as the US has not yet ratified it.

If only the US and China ratified the CTBT circumstances would certainly change. Furthermore, as suggested by Hans Blix, former UN Chief Weapons Inspector, “The reality is that if the US were to ratify (the CTBT), then China would. If China did, India would.

If India did, Pakistan would. If Pakistan did, then Iran would”. Ratification by other countries listed as Annex 2 countries is only a matter of time. Indonesia’s ratification of the CTBT might generate the requisite domino effect worldwide.

However, there are some challenges we must carefully consider relating to Indonesia’s ratification of the CTBT. First, by signing the treaty, it does not mean that other countries cannot develop nuclear technology.

The CTBT is aimed at creating nuclear weapons-free zones, but not zero nuclear technology. Hence ratification does not prevent Indonesia from developing nuclear technology.

Second, there must be assurances from nuclear-weapon countries that they will not use their weapons of mass destruction against non-nuclear armed countries under any circumstances.

Third, there must be a real effort to declare the Middle East as a nuclear free zone. In this process, there should be no double standards applied to Israel, which is suspected to have developed nuclear weapons without sanctions from the US and its allies.

These efforts will never succeed as long as there is no clarity regarding Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons. Moreover, Israel has not joined the NPT and until today does not intend to ratify the CTBT.

Countries in possession of nuclear power and especially the US must be able to put pressure on Israel over its nuclear-weapons possession. As long as Israel has nuclear weapons, the threat of the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East will continue to haunt world peace.

Finally, for Indonesia, the ratification of the CTBT is an appropriate diplomatic strategy. This is in line with the principle of the government’s foreign policy of “A Million Friends and Zero Enemies”. This ratification once again will add to Indonesia’s high profile in the international arena.

The writer is chairman of the House of Representatives’ Commission I on foreign affairs and defense and a lawmaker from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)