Tuesday, November 6, 2012

US election and RI’s global role


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The people of the United States went to the polls to elect their president on Tuesday. Understanding the recent debates, many believe there will be no major changes in domestic and foreign policies regardless of whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney emerges victorious.

Given the recent history of the US, both candidates were expected to focus on domestic economic policy. For Romney and Obama, the current US economic downturn, the European economic crises and China’s economic rise and downturn are too important to be ignored. Whoever wins the election will spend more time restoring US economic might as well as boosting the world’s economy.

Still, there is a need for Indonesia to understand what US foreign policy will be and what Indonesia will do in the next four years in relation to the superpower.

Some analysts believe that if Romney wins the election, US foreign policy will slightly shift back to its direction during the term of George W. Bush. Romney is more unilateralist and more focused on traditional foreign policy than Obama. He will refocus US foreign policy on the Middle East, US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, on how to “save” Europe from economic disaster, as well as the continuity of its war on terror.

And again, like many other Republican presidents, Romney will not pay great attention to Asia — except for China, Japan and South Korea, unless something bad impedes the implementation of US foreign policy.

Unlike Romney, Obama, will look at Asia and the Pacific with his “pivot” policy. As a discussion at the Brookings Institute in Washington, DC noted earlier this year, “The Obama administration has adopted a policy of rebalancing toward Asia and in recent months, has detailed this in military, economic and trade, human rights and diplomatic initiatives. President Obama has personally affirmed that the US will play a leadership role in Asia for many years to come. While this set of policies is not entirely new, it is sufficiently distinctive as a package to warrant examination as to its feasibility and likely impact.”

Recent developments in Asia, especially Southeast Asia, have forced the US to “rebalance” its policy toward Asia. Developments in the South China Sea have prompted the US to think twice about its policy. Now, it would like to involve more countries in the region like Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, and, for sure, Australia.

These countries are regarded as important allies in the US foreign policy to “contain” China and its Blue Water Navy policy.

In fact, Indonesia could play a greater role in the issue as a “bridge builder”. As President Yudhoyono recently stated in his speech in Wilton Park in London, Indonesia wants to play a mediating role in the South China Sea dispute by proposing common principles and values rather than just procedures and frameworks.

The draft code of conduct for the South China Sea, circulated by Indonesia to ASEAN foreign ministers, proves that Indonesia has opted to play a constructive role by forging a consensus on the management of maritime disputes.

Indonesia can play a major role in other areas, such as relations between Southeast Asia nations and China, India, Japan and South Korea or even Russia. As a non-claimant to the disputes, Indonesia is able to effectively play a part in institutionalizing regional cooperation to face the growing competition and quest for influence between the US and China as well as between the US and Russia.

Another important way in which Indonesia can play a significant role is by helping to promote democracy at the global level. In 2008, the Indonesian Foreign Ministry initiated the Bali Democracy Forum (BDF) as a forum to compare notes and share experiences on democracy in the Asia-Pacific region.

In its fifth year, the BDF has been a prime mover of democratic changes in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa.

The present political change to a more democratic environment in Myanmar is indeed because they believe that democracy cannot be imposed from outside or by outsiders. For a democracy to work properly, its seeds must be planted in the soil of a nation’s life, as in the case of Egypt and Tunisia.

Today’s globalization poses serious challenges to democracies as interdependence among nations deepens. No country, however powerful or resourceful, can alone resolve the problems that do not respect borders. These challenges can only be effectively overcome through strong and democratic global governance, which is unfortunately lacking today.

The BDF should therefore discuss approaches to integrate democratic principles into global governance, especially in managing collective efforts to promote peace and security, economic development, and the universal enjoyment of human rights, in support of the ongoing efforts of global organizations such as the United Nations (on UNSC reform for example) to advance global institutional reforms.

Indonesia is uniquely qualified to offer a perspective on these issues, the US presidential candidates choose to speak about it or not. Now, it depends on whether Indonesia would like to use this opportunity to play more of a major role at the global level or just keep up with business as usual.

The writer, who obtained his Ph.D. from the Victoria University of Wellington, works for the Indonesian Foreign Ministry and is a member of the board of advisors of the Institute for Peace and Democracy. The opinions expressed are personal.

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